Study: GM and Ford will overtake Tesla in the electric vehicle market by 2025
DETROIT — Faced with growing competition, Tesla Inc.’s electric vehicle market share is expected to fall from 70% today to just 11% by 2025, as incumbents such as General Motors and Ford overtake it , according to the annual ‘Car Wars’ study.
John Murphy, senior automotive analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said he expects GM and Ford to each hold around 15% market share of electric vehicles by 2025, behind the strength of new products. like the F-150 Lightning and the upcoming Chevrolet Silverado EV, which he said would represent a market share jump of about 10% from where the two automakers are now.
“This dominance of Tesla in the electric vehicle market, particularly in the United States, is over,” Murphy said at an Automotive Press Association event here. “It’s going to change hugely in the opposite direction over the next four years.”
This year’s “Car Wars” study predicts that around 60% of new nameplates by model year 2026 will be either electric or hybrid vehicles. Murphy said Thursday he expects electric vehicle sales to reach at least 10% of the U.S. sales market by that time, although there is room for more growth.
Murphy said Tesla isn’t expanding its portfolio fast enough to keep up with both incumbent automakers and new startups developing their own electric wallets.
“[CEO Elon Musk] has had a void over the past 10 years to operate where there hasn’t been much competition,” Murphy said. “That void is now being massively filled over the next four years with some really great products . “
Tesla’s next Cybertruck has been repeatedly delayed and is now expected to be released next year, while plans for its next-generation Roadster have also been pushed back.
Meanwhile, Ford and GM executives have said they plan to challenge Tesla for the No. 1 electric vehicle maker title later this decade. Ford says it will build 2 million electric vehicles globally by 2026, while GM says it will have more than 2 million units of electric vehicle capacity in North America and China combined until in 2025.
“[Elon] didn’t move fast enough,” Murphy said. “He had tremendous pride that [other automakers] would never catch him and be able to do what he does, and they do.”